Many people have a favourite jockey and follow their hero through think and thin. However race results stats show that this is a pathway to losing!
Obviously a jockey’s form is an integral factor in a horse’s chances of winning a race and must be taken into account. But don’t follow a jockey blindly come rain or shine as the statistics show that this is not a profitable horse racing system.
This is because when the racing public (or mugs as the bookies would no doubt call them) start to fanatically follow a particular rider then the odds will be driven down accordingly. So, while a particular jockey may have a fantastic win record, the returns from a level stake are less likely to balance out inevitable losses. For example let’s look at A.P. McCoy, one of horse racing’s modern legends.
The Profit / Loss column shows that betting blindly on all Tony McCoy mounts would result in a huge loss of 987 units!
Ruby Walsh is another “housewive’s favourite” and he also shows a big loss over time (688 units).
The conclusion therefore is not to take the jockey’s name alone into account but combine the jockey’s form with other factors such as trainer synergy and horse’s current form.